中文摘要：

目的 探讨参数正则稳态脆弱模型在临床复发事件数据中的应用。 方法 以慢性肉芽肿（CGD）患者为例构建参数正则稳态脆弱模型，假定复发事件的基线分布服从威布尔分布、指数分布和Gompertz分布，脆弱项服从正则稳态脆弱分布，采用边际极大似然估计（MMLE）来实现参数估计并进行不同条件下模型对比分析。 结果 参数正则稳态脆弱模型既考虑了个体内复发时间的相关性，又考虑了不同个体间的异质性，可以用来分析慢性肉芽肿患者反复住院的影响因素，结果解释合理，软件实现便捷。 结论 参数正则稳态脆弱模型是适合分析临床复发数据并进行临床疗效评价或者影响因素的研究。

英文摘要：

Objective To explore the application of parametric positive stable frailty model in analysis of clinical recurrent event data. Methods Taking the data of patients with chronic granulomatous disease（CGD） as an example, establishing the parametric positive stable frailty model, assuming that the distribution of baseline is Weibull distribution, exponential distribution and Gompertz distribution, frailty factor is positive stable distribution. parameters were estimated by using the Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation（MMLE）. The models in different baseline distribution were compared and analyzed. Results The parametric positive stable frailty model not only regard the dependent within groups, but also consider the heterogeneity between groups in recurrent event data. This model can be used to analyze repeatedly hospitalized factors of patients with chronic granulomatous disease（CGD）. The results are easy to implement with software and it’s explain is reasonable. Conclusion The parametric positive stable frailty model is suitable for analyzing clinical recurrent event data and studying clinical evaluation or influencing factors.