生存分析(survivalanalysis)适用于事件持续时间及其影响因素的研究.本文以二手房议价持时为研究对象,采用实验经济学方法设计了二手房交易实验,收集二手房交易的微观数据,使用生存分析方法建立Weibull模型和Cox模型进行实证分析,研究了二手房议价持时的影响因素,得出研究结论并提出了降低二手房议价持时的合理建议.研究表明:二手房议价持时与卖方经验、中介经验、价格偏离度、卖方积极度和时间压力成反比,与买方经验成正比,与买方积极度和成交价格无显著关系.本文的创新点在于使用实验经济学方法收集数据,提高了数据的准确度和针对性,同时引入生存分析方法,为二手房议价持时研究提供了新方法与研究视角.
Survival analysis is a method suitable for study on event duration and its influencing factors. In this paper, second-hand housing bargain duration and its influence factors are studied with Weibull model and Cox model of survival analysis and with housing transactions micro data collected by conducting experiments designed according to experimental economics. Advises of reducing bargain duration are given with regard to research results. Our study shows that second-hand housing bargain duration is inversely related to seller experience, broker experience, price bias degree, seller's motivation and time pressure; bargain duration is proportional to the buyer experience and has no significant relationship with buyer's motivation and transaction price. Experimental economics method is used to collect data, which improves the accuracy and relevance of data; meanwhile the method of survival analysis is introduced to the study, providing new perspective of second-hand housing bargain duration study.