本文运用EG协整理论和信息份额模型等方法,从燃料油期货与现货价格的长期关系、价格发现、市场投机度、价格风险四个方面探讨了燃料油期货市场的运行效率。结果表明,燃料油期货市场已初步具有了价格发现和套期保值功效,但争取亚洲定价权还需继续努力,并就我国石油期货市场进一步发展应注意的问题进行了分析。
Using EG integrated theory and information share model, the paper investigates the operating efficiency of fuel oil's futures market from four aspects, that is, long term relationship between futures and cash prices, contribution to price discovery, speculation degree and price risk. The conclusion is that fuel oil futures has primary price discovery and hedge function. However there is still a great deal of hard works to be done to strive for international oil pricing power. And finally, several problems are analyzed to promote Chinese oil futures market development.