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中文摘要：
应用Archimedean Copula函数研究干旱特征变量的联合分布,为水资源决策者提供依据。以渭河流域西安站77年的月降水资料为例,采用Archimedean Copulas函数建立干旱特征变量之间的三维联合分布模型。分别采用极大似然法和适线法进行参数估计,通过拟合优度评价选用Clayton Copula描述干旱历时,干旱烈度和干旱烈度峰值之间的联合分布,并计算条件重现期。结果表明,Copulas函数能够比较好地描述干旱特征变量间的联合分布;具有灵活性和应用范围广等特点。
英文摘要：
Applying copula function to the joint distribution of drought variables serves as a basis for water resources decision-makers.Taking 77 years of monthly precipitation data of Xi＇an Gauge Station located in the Weihe River Basin as an example,this paper uses Archimedean Copula functions to establish the three-dimensional joint distributed model among drought variables.Maximum Likehood Estimation Method and Curve Fitting Method are used to estimate the parameters of copulas,then goodness of fit statistics is used to choose the best fittest one-Clayton Copula to describe the joint distribution of drought duration,drought severity and severity peak,as well as calculates the conditional return periods.The results show that,copula functions can better describe the joint distribution of drought variable and has flexibility and wide range of application.
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