中文摘要：

需求变更是软件开发的重要风险来源。针对软件开发早期阶段,以需求变更的影响传播为视角对需求变更风险进行了讨论。从变更传播概率和变更影响概率两个维度定义了变更传播风险,构建了基于设计结构矩阵DSM的变更传播风险分析模型,对组件的变更传播风险进行了估算和比较,通过模型划分讨论了变更传播的影响方式。

英文摘要：

Requirement change is a major source of software development risk. The risk of change propagation is predicted in terms of change propagation probability and change impact in this paper. A probabilistic model based on Design Structure Matrix （DSM） is established to evaluate the risk of change propagation, which supports the pre-diction of potential risk of change propagation for each component. The partitioning algorithm is applied to regroup the components for the purpose of eliminating unnecessary design iteration.