中文摘要：

金沙江上游奔子栏-昌波河段属典型的干热河谷区,气候干热少雨,但泥石流灾害发生频繁。采用指标熵模型对干热河谷区泥石流的影响因子进行敏感性分析,最后筛选出流域地貌熵值、岩土类型、坡向、坡度、植被归一化指数、月均降雨量等6个因子作为泥石流的易发性评价因子。将研究区划分为217个小流域,以流域单元为评价单元,采用权重系数法建立了泥石流的易发性评价模型,并利用该模型制作易发性分区图。分区结果表明：研究区泥石流极高易发区和高易发区主要分布在北部的昌波-贡波段、中东部的徐龙-曲雅贡段和南部的金沙江沿岸。极高易发区和高易发区面积占研究区总面积的36.4%,两区内的泥石流流域面积占泥石流总流域面积的58%。经检验泥石流的预测成功率为69.6%。

英文摘要：

The Benzilan- Changbo segment of the upper Jinsha River belongs to a typical dry-hot valley area,where it is characterized by a dry-hot climate with little rain and debris flows occur frequently. The sensitivity of impact factors on debris flows in dry-hot valley was analyzed using the index entropy model. A total of 6 factors were served as impact factors for debris flow susceptibility assessment,namely geomorphologic entropy in catchment,lithology,slope aspect,slope gradient,average monthly rainfall and normalized vegetation index. Considering watershed characteristics of debris flow,the study area is divided into 217 small catchments. Taking the small catchments as unit for susceptibility assessment of debris flow,and a susceptibility division map was made using weighted coefficient method. The results show that very high and high susceptibility area mainly are distributed in the Changbo- Gongbo segment of the north,Xulong- Quyagong segment of the east-central and along the banks of the Jinsha River of the south. The area with very high and high susceptibility accounts for 36. 4% of the total area of the study area,and the area of debris flow in these two areas was 58%. The success rate of the debris flow susceptibility assessment was 69. 6%.