中文摘要：

利用长江流域1961—2008年观测气象资料,对IPCC第四次评估报告中12个全球气候模式及所有模式集合平均进行比较验证,结果表明：MIUB_ECHO_G模式对该地区降水模拟能力较强,NCAR_CCSM3模式对温度模拟效果较好。进一步利用MIUB_ECHO_G模式和NCAR_CCSM3模式结果在SRES-A2、-A1B、-B13种排放情景下的降水和温度数据,分析2011—2050年3种排放情景下长江流域降水和温度变化特征。结果表明,2011—2050年长江流域降水变化趋势不明显,温度呈增加趋势,增幅在2℃内。

英文摘要：

Simulation abilities of different global climate models（GCMs） are different for a specific region.To select the applicable GCMs to project climate change in the Yangtze River basin,observed climate data from 1961 to 2008 were used to compare the 12 GCMs from IPCC-AR4.The results show that MIUB_ECHO_G model had better simulation ability for precipitation than the rest GCMs,and NCAR_CCSM3 model had better simulation ability for temperature.Based on the projected data by the two models,future annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies for 2011-2050,relative to the reference period of 1971-2000,under the SRES-A2,-A1B,and-B1 scenarios,were analyzed.Projected precipitation does not show obvious changing trends under the three different scenarios and projected temperature shows continuous increasing trends with an increasing range within 2 ℃.