中文摘要：

针对电力月负荷同时具有趋势增长性和季节波动性，使负荷表现出复杂的非线性特征。从而提出了电力月负荷的混沌趋势组合模型。以四川省全省月负荷序列为例，把原始电力月负荷序列分解为趋势序列和剩余序列。通过计算刺余序列的混沌特征量。识别出剩余序列的混沌特性。在此基础上，利用混沌趋势组合模型对月负荷时间序列进行预测，实例结果表明，谊方法对电力月负荷的预测是可行的。

英文摘要：

Monthly load is possessed of the property of increase trend and seasonal fluctuation simultaneously, so its behavior appears as the characteristic of complex non - linearity. A combined model based on chaos and trend analysis for monthly load forecast is presented, Decomposing the original monthly load time aeries of Sichuan province into a part of trend and a part of suplus and based on chaos theory, chaotic characteristic of the surplus series is extracted, and it is concluded that surplus series is a chaotic one. Then combined model is used to forecast monthly load, and the predicted result indicates that the combined model is effective for monthly load forecast.