中文摘要：

给出了Bayes方法（BayesMethod）的思路和计算方法。据四川8条河12个站点的多年水质监测数据，选择了6个水质指标，以GB3838-2002为评价标准，首次以抽样误差正态分布原理估计Bayes公式中的似然概率，进而基于Bayes公式做水质评价。评价结果表明多年平均情况下水质为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类，但以Ⅰ类为主，少数为Ⅲ类。

英文摘要：

The potential capability to assess water quality by using Bayes method in which the likelihood probability may be estimated based on normal distribution has been first explored in this paper. Such assessment of water quality of the main rivers in Sichuan Province was successfully tried as a case study. The basic data for the assessed water were collected from 12 monitoring stations on 8 rivers in Sichuan Province. The result has shown that the water quality of 8 rivers may be respectively classified to Ⅰ,Ⅱand Ⅲ by the standard of GB3838-2002. Moreover, the result has also shown that the suggested Bayes method would be a good alternative for the assessment of water quality in the future.