中文摘要：

给出了贝叶斯方法（Bayes Method）的思路和计算方法,探讨了Bayes公式在河流水质评价中的可能性.根据四川8条河12个站点的多年水质监测数据,选择了6个水质指标,以GB3838-2002为评价标准,用贝叶斯方法进行了水质评价,评价结果表明多年平均情况下水质为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类,但以Ⅰ类为主,少数为Ⅲ类.

英文摘要：

The potential capability to assess water quality by using Bayes method has been first explored in this paper. Such an assessment of water quality on main rivers in Sichuan Province is successfully tried as a case study. The basic data for this assessment water are collected from 12 monitoring station on 8 rivers in Sichuan. The results show that the classification of the water quality on 8 rivers may respectively belong to Ⅰ ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ based on the standardization of GB3838-2002. Morever, the results show also that the suggested Bayes method would be a good alternative one for the assessment of water quality in the future.