采用Mann—Kendall法,以实测站点数据为基础,选取降水和气温两个主要气象要素指标,对西辽河流域1951~2006年来的气候变化趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明:1)近60年来,西辽河流域降水量总体呈减少趋势,但趋势不明显。变化序列可以划分为三个阶段:1951~1984年平均降水量呈减少趋势;1985~1995呈增加趋势;1996-今年降水呈减少趋势;三个阶段趋势都不显著。近60年来春季降水变化大,夏、秋、冬三季降水量呈减少趋势,冬季减少明显。2)西辽河流域气温在20世纪90年代以前变化不明显,上世纪90年代至今气温显著增高,目前仍在上升阶段,近60年来全年各月气温都呈显著增加趋势。
Using the Mann - Kendall method, based on actual metrical data, temperature and precipitation were selected as the two main meteorological indicators to carry on the analysis on the climate change trend of Xiliao River basin from1951 to 2006. The studies indicated that: 1)In the recent 60 years, the precipitation of Xiliao River basin overall was declined, but not remarkable, the change sequence could be divided into three phases: the annual average precipitation was reduced from 1951 to 1984. from 1985 to 1995 the annual average precipitation was increases; the precipitation was declined from 1996; the trend of three phases were all unremarkable. The precipitation was declined in summer,autumn and winter, and was obvious in winter; 2) Temperature change was not obvious before 1990, but obviously increased from 1990 to now, at present it is still in the ascent stage. Near for 60 years, each month's temperature were all increased remarkably.