高温热浪作为一种常见的气象灾害,对人们的生产、生活、健康产生很大的影响。为探索福建省沿海与内陆城市高温热浪脆弱差异性及其形成机制,本文构建了包含暴露性、敏感性、适应性3个维度的高温热浪脆弱性评估模型(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram,VSD)。利用1994-2013年逐日极端高温数据和经济社会统计数据,分别对处于沿海和内陆的福州和南平市辖区进行高温热浪脆弱性及其3个维度(暴露性、敏感性、适应性)的评估与比较,并试图解释分析福州市辖区与南平市辖区高温热浪脆弱性的差异及其原因。结果显示:由于地理环境与社会经济系统的显著差异,近20年来,沿海地区高温热浪的脆弱性低于内陆地区,但随着经济发展导致的敏感性增加,前者不断攀升的脆弱性可能会超越后者;内陆地区的人类活动对环境的干扰程度相对较弱,其敏感性不断降低而适应性有所上升,使得其高温热浪的脆弱性不断降低。降低高温热浪脆弱性的关键在于同时增强区域适应性与降低敏感性,这对制定适应性措施具有积极的现实意义。
As one type of meteorological disasters, heat waves have exerted great influences on human production, life, and health. In order to explore the differences of heat wave vulnerability between coastal and inland cities and its formation mechanism, a heat wave Vulnerability Scoping Diagram(VSD) is constructed in this article, which includes three dimensions—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. Using the daily extreme highest temperature data from 1994 to 2013 and economic and social statistics, the heat wave vulnerability and its three dimensions, i.e. exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, are assessed and compared respectively between Fuzhou and Nanping, which are located in the coastal and inland area of Fujian Province. It is attempted to explain the vulnerability differences between coastal and inland areas. The result shows that: heat wave vulnerability of the coastal and inland areas had significant differences due to their geographical and socioeconomic differences, and vulnerability to heat waves in the coastal region was lower than that of the inland area in the last 20 years. However, the rising vulnerability of the former may surpass that of the latter in the future as a result of economic development in the coastal area that leads to increased sensitivity. Environmental impact of human activities is relatively weak in the inland region, and vulnerability to heat waves will decrease slowly because of decreasing sensitivity and increasing adaptation. The key to reduce vulnerability to heat waves is to enhance regional adaptability and reduce sensitivity at the same time. This has important implications for designing effective polices.