近50年来山丹绿洲变化总体上处于波动性扩张趋势,研究基于山丹绿洲时空变化数据、实地访谈资料、统计年鉴和相关历史资料对绿洲变化的驱动机制进行了探讨。结果表明,人文因素是山丹绿洲变化的主导驱动力,对绿洲面积变化的相对贡献率为64.3%。影响绿洲变化的主要人文驱动力有人口增长、农业政策、社会经济发展和农业科技进步等,其中2000年以前人口增长是绿洲扩张的主导驱动力,2000年以后农民为提高生活质量而追求经济利益最大化是绿洲扩张的根本原因。
The changes of Shandan Oasis showed a general trend of fluctuation and expansion in the latest 50 years. In this paper,the driving mechanism on the spatial-temporal changes of Oasis was discussed based on the spatial-temporal changes,the field interview, statistical yearbooks and some related historical materials of Shandan Oasis. The results showed that human factors were the dominant driving forces for the changes of oasis and its relative contribution to the change of area was64.3%. The main human driving factors were the growth of population, agricultural policy, the development of socio-economic, agricultural science and technology,et al. Before 2 000,the dominant driving force for the expansion of the Oasis was the growth of population, and after 2 000 it was that farmer pursuit the maximization economic interests so as to improve the quality of their life.