中文摘要：

以突变理论为基础，给出了突发事件影响度的仿真评价方法．通过采用三角分布描述专家对子指标影响程度的估计，建立了突发事件影响度的仿真模型．通过对仿真模型进行独立重复仿真实验，获得突发事件影响度的评价值并进行统计分析．为克服评价结果偏高而区分度不高的缺陷，研究了评价值的转换方法，转换后的评价值能更好地体现人们对突发事件的认知程度．该方法可将定量、定性指标纳入同一模型中，并可避免人为确定权重的主观性．算例表明，在基于突变理论的评价模型中结合系统仿真的思想，是研究突发事件影响度的有效方法．该方法具有良好的可靠性，也可适用于其它综合评价问题．

英文摘要：

Based on the catastrophe theory, a new simulation method for influence degree evaluation of catastrophe is proposed. The method has three innovations. First, Triangle Distribution is used to get evaluation values which quantify description sentences given by experts. Second, through generating random numbers, a simulation evaluation model is established to evaluate the influence degree of rare event. Running the simulation independently and repea＇tedly, evaluation values can be obtained and be analyzed statistically. Third, in order to reflect the experts＇ intents correctly and to avoid the defects of high evaluation values and of incomparability between evaluation values, a technique of evaluation value transformation is brought out. The transformed evaluation values can represent the people＇s perception to rare event correctly. The method can incorporate qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes in a model, and avoid the subjective quantification of evaluation indexes. An illustrative demonstration is given to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the idea, which integrates the system simulation into the catastrophe evaluation model. This method is proven to be reliable, and can be widely used in comprehensive evaluation problems.