中文摘要：

不确定性的知识表示和推理是突发事件影响度评估中需要解决的重要问题。针对突发事件评估信息的多样性、不确定性及模糊性，利用贝叶斯网络易于进行不确定性推理的优点，提出了采用贝叶斯网络对突发事件影响度进行评价，建立了评价模型，给出了推理决策方法，并且对该方法进行了算例分析。算例表明，基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件影响度评价模型能够提高评估的准确度及对突发事件的响应能力。

英文摘要：

Knowledge denotation and deduction of uncertainty are important issue to be solved in evaluating influ- ence degree of emergent events. Aim at the diversity, uncertainty and fuzziness of assessment information about emergent event, based on the merit of Bayesian network in dealing with uncertainty influence, the Bayesian network emergent event influence assessment model and corresponding deductive decision-making method were presented in this paper. The results show that the assessment model can improve the assessment accuracy and ability of the response to the influence of emergent event.