本文应用非线性光滑转换面板数据模型,从微观层面对我国货币政策传导的非线性效应进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:我国货币政策对公司的投资传导具有显著的非线性效应,我国货币政策在总体上具有微观有效性;非线性效应体现在:当公司利润率处于6.75%左右,货币政策传导效应处于中间机制,货币政策利率传导渠道效应最弱,而信用渠道效应最强;而当公司利润率小于-12%或大于25%左右,货币政策传导效应处于外机制,此时货币政策利率传导渠道效应最强,而信用渠道效应最弱;在两机制间,货币政策传导效应存在显著的非线性光滑转换,转换速度为221.467。本文的研究结论支持利率调控优先于信用调控投资的货币政策。
By using panel smooth transition model, the paper empirically studies the nonlinear transmission effect of Chinese monetary policy with the panel data of listed companies. The result shows that there is significant nonlinear effect of the monetary policy when the profit rate of listed companies is at about 6. 75%, and the monetary policy transmission effect is in the mid-regime, which means that monetary policy transmission effect through interest-rate channel is the weakest, but through credit channel is the strongest. And vice verse, when monetary policy transmission effect is in the outer-regime and the profit rate of listed companies is less than - 12% or more than 25%. There is significant nonlinear smooth transition between these two regimes and the speed of transition is 221. 467. The result of this paper implies that the policy of adjusting interest-rate is preferred to the strategy of credit control towards depressing the overdue investment in China.