本文基于严格的检验,对我国货币M2的长期稳定以及它的收入速率的功能等问题进行协整和弱外生检验,结论表明,我国货币收入速率对于货币需求的长期稳定具有显著作用,而这种长期稳定对货币收入速率又具有显著的调节效应。这一结论隐含了我国货币政策效应可以辅之以货币收入速率予以考察并可以用货币收入速率辅助调节货币需求,而我国利率则是关注参数的弱外生变量,这一结论支持有关扩大利率的浮动范围的利率政策。
The key points for applying the stochastic cointegration (Johansen, 1992, Maddala, 1998) are specification tests and diagnosis. This paper, based on the tests for the cointegrating specification, empirically studied the stochastic cointegration of M2 with real output, interest rate as well as ratio of money to income, and tested the weak exogenous of the interest rate for the cointegating vector. The conclusions imply that the ratio significantly enter the cointegrating equation, the interest is weak exogenous . Such conclusions are helpful for understanding the effects of Chinese money policies and identifying the objective of the policies.