通过仿真计算找出影响发输电系统可靠性的主要因素对电力系统设计与运行均有重要意义。文中根据切负荷量的大小,将蒙特卡洛法可靠性计算的输入事件样本集合划分为2个子集,提出了2个反映子集差异程度的指标。一个指标可直接计算,另一个采用简单的假设检验法计算。所提出的指标既可用于评估可靠性事件对充裕度指标的影响程度,还可用于对影响充裕度指标的重要元件进行排序,从而找出系统的薄弱环节。算例表明,所提出的方法和指标是有效的。
To find out the major factors, which affect the reliability of composite generation and transmission system, by simulating computation is of great significance for the power system design and operation. According to the level of load shedding, for the purpose of Monte Carlo reliability computation, the input set, which is constituted of elements status, is divided into two subsets. Two indices that represent the differences between both subsets are proposed. One can be calculated directly, the other is the result of simple hypothesis test. Based on these two indices, not only the contributing level of elements event to adequacy index can be evaluated, but also the importance of elements can be ranked. As a result, the bottleneck of power systems can be found. The test case shows that the proposed method and indices are effective. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50847043, 90610024, 50467002, 50347026) and the Key Project of Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province (No. 2005F0005Z).