面对人口老龄化问题,2009年国家开始试点新型农村社会养老保险,而新农保是否对家庭养老模式产生替代性,这一影响是否存在地区差异,还有待进一步评估验证。本文基于CHARLS微观调查数据,采用两阶段最小二乘法,研究了新农保政策对不同地区家庭养老模式的替代性。结果表明,领取新农保养老金对东部地区农户从子女处获得的经济支持没有显著影响,但它显著降低了中西部地区农户获得子女经济支持的概率,而他们获得的经济支持金额对养老金收入并不敏感。因此,新农保政策对农村地区尤其是中西部农村地区的家庭养老模式具有一定的替代性,但仍未根本动摇家庭养老模式。政府须在财力允许和充分考虑地区差异的条件下,进一步推进和完善新农保制度。
Faced with the aging population, the government has been experimenting with the New Rural Social Pen- sion Insurance (NRSPI) since 2009. Whether the NRSPI system can substitute the traditional family - based old age provision, and whether this impact differs in different regions, still remain to be evaluated. Therefore, based on survey data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this paper adopted the two - stage least squares method to investigate the substitutability between the NRSPI system and family support. The results showed that re- ceiving pensions had no significant effect on the financial support rural households obtained from adult children in eastern region, but it significantly reduced the likelihood of rural households receiving support from their children in central and western regions. However, the amount received by rural households in central and western regions was not sensitive to received pensions. Thus, the NRSPI in central and western regions, but hasn' t changed system can substitute family provisions to some extent, especially the tradition fundamentally. Government should promote and improve the NRSPI program with consideration to financial capacity and regional differences.