中文摘要：

基于概率统计理论的传统可靠性评估方法得到的是批量产品整体的可靠性水平,较强依赖于寿命数据,对于产品运行可靠性进行评估并不适宜。这里以电磁继电器为例,给出一种基于状态监测数据和整体寿命数据的性能评估方法。根据电接触检测试验得到触点接触电阻状态监测数据和继电器的寿命数据,对继电器寿命分布进行检验,确定继电器寿命分布为威布尔分布;以接触电阻为模型协变量,以威布尔分布为继电器失效分布类型,计算继电器基准故障率函数,采用极大似然估计法对模型参数进行估计,建立继电器威布尔比例故障率性能评估模型。在此基础上,给出继电器监测间隔动态预测方法。实例分析表明,该方法对继电器进行性能评价是有效的,可为器件更换、系统维护决策提供支持。

英文摘要：

The result obtained from traditional reliability evaluation methods is the overall level of a collection of electrical products which mainly based on probability and statistics theory,strongly relying on lifetime data,and not suit for operating reliability evaluation.Electromagnetic relay,for example,a performance assessment method based on condition monitoring data and overall lifetime data is proposed.Calculate the baseline hazard rate function according to contact status monitoring and lifetime data from the electrical contact test and determined Weibull distribution as relay＇s lifetime distribution after fitting test.Taking contact resistance and Weibull distribution as model covariate and baseline hazard rate function form respectively.Model parameters could be obtained by maximum likelihood estimation method.Weibull proportional hazards model for performance evaluation for relays is established and monitoring interval dynamic prediction method is presented on this basis.Application example is given to verify the effectiveness of this method,providing support for devices change and maintenance decision.