中文摘要：

【目的】天然橡胶是国民经济建设不可缺少的重要战略物资,受气候因素限制,中国种植橡胶树范围有限,迫切需要厘清天然橡胶树种植的气候适宜性区域。本研究旨在划分出中国橡胶树种植气候适宜性分布,以阐明中国橡胶树种植的气候差异格局。【方法】根据中国橡胶树种植区的自然气候特点和生物学特征,基于橡胶树种植存在概率、橡胶树台风影响概率和橡胶树寒害影响概率,分别采用最大熵模型和影响橡胶树种植的5个主导气候因子（最冷月平均温度、极端最低温度平均值、月平均温度≥18℃月份、年平均气温、年平均降水量）计算橡胶树种植气候适宜性指数。根据台风历史资料和橡胶林台风灾害分级标准计算橡胶树台风灾害指数、参照《橡胶寒害等级（QX/T169—2012）》行业标准计算橡胶树综合寒害指数。根据确定的橡胶树种植的气候区划指标（气候适宜性指数、橡胶树台风灾害指数、橡胶树综合寒害指数）,结合模糊综合评价模型,进行中国橡胶树种植气候适宜性区划,区划结果划分为高适宜区、中适宜区、低适宜区。【结果】橡胶树种植的气候高适宜区面积约4.99×104 km2,占研究区面积的20.94%,主要分布在海南儋州、澄迈、定安、乐东、保亭,广东徐闻、雷州、湛江、阳江,云南景洪、勐腊,福建诏安、云霄,广西防城等地。该区域气候条件优越,但部分区域属于台风高影响区,因此需要防御台风灾害对橡胶树的影响。气候中适宜区面积约8.85×104 km2,占研究区面积的35.86%,主要分布在在海南琼中、东方、昌江、万宁、琼海等,广东廉江、高州、茂名、信宜、惠来、潮州,福建漳州、漳浦等,云南瑞丽、旧过,广西北海、合浦。与高适宜区相比,该区域橡胶树寒害发生概率增加,部分区域受台风影响概率也增加,应针对不同灾害特点,加强橡胶寒害和风害?

英文摘要：

【Objective】 Rubber is an important and indispensable strategic material for national economy construction in China, but the range of rubber plantation in China is restricted due to the limitation of climatic factors. Thus, it is urgent to understand where is suitable for rubber plantation in China. The purpose of this paper is to differentiate climate suitability distribution of rubber tree and to clarify the climate difference of rubber tree plantation in China. 【Method】 Climatic suitability index of rubber plantation were calculated by the maximum entropy model and five main climate factors of rubber tree.（The five main climate factors are mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of month that the monthly mean temperature ≥18℃, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation）. Typhoon disaster indexes of rubber plantation were calculated by historical typhoon data and typhoon disaster classification standard of rubber. Chilling injury indexes of rubber plantation were calculated based on meteorological industry standards of the People＇s Republic of China（QX/T169-2012）： Grade of rubber chilling injury. According to the natural climate characteristics and biological characteristics of rubber plantation area, the corresponding evaluation factors were used to carry out climatic suitability regionalization by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, including the probability of climate suitability, probability of typhoon disaster, and probability of rubber plantation chilling injury. The climatic suitability regionalization results were divided into high suitable area, medium suitable area, low suitable area. 【Result】 A better climatic regionalization of rubber plantation in China was given in this study based on the comprehensive effects of agroclimatic resources and agrometeorological disasters. The high suitable area was about 4.99×104 km2, accounting for 20.94% of the study area. The area includs Danzhou, Chengmai, Ding＇an, Ledon