中文摘要：

灾害评估模型的建立往往需要有大量历史统计资料作为支撑，然而在实际研究中会存在收集资料不全或统计数据灾情衡量标准不一致的情况，这给灾害模型的建立带来了一定的困难。受到逆向工程设计思路的启示，为实现台风对天然橡胶造成灾害损失程度的快速评价，尝试着以典型个例分析为基础，以2005年对海南天然橡胶造成严重损害台风“达维”为例，从孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体三方面选择橡胶灾情评估因子，通过分析天然橡胶受损的程度与相关因子的分析，建立相应的评估模型，并将此模型为基础，进行了模型的实例检验，结果表明：模型能在一定程度上反映橡胶受损的空间分布，可为后期建立更加准确的天然橡胶评估模型奠定基础。

英文摘要：

Disaster assessment models usually are established with a large number of historical statistics. However, the data are often incomplete or statistics disaster measure inconsistent, which will bring some inconvenience in the establishment of disaster model. In order to rapidly assess typhoon s＇ impact on rubber plant, typical case typhoon ＂David＂ was analyzed in the enlightenment of the reverse engineering design thinking. The assessment model factors were chosen from disaster pregnant environment, disaster-formative factors, and disaster-affected bodies. The evaluation model was established by analyzing the extent of natural rubber damage and related factors, and actual example tests were carried out on the model. Results show that, the model reflects the spatial distribution of rubber damage loss in some degree. The model would be the foundation for establishing more accurate assessment model.