中文摘要：

基于1961-2010年海南18个气象站点气象资料、海南稻飞虱发生资料以及水稻种植面积等资料，采用相关分析方法、多元回归方法对海南水稻稻飞虱发生面积与气象因子的关系进行研究，量化了气象因子变化对稻飞虱发生的影响。结果表明：近50年来，海南稻飞虱发生面积以平均10 4hm2／10a的速度增长，其发生面积率距平与年平均温度、年高温日数、年降水量、年平均降水强度和年暴雨日数距平呈显著正相关；与年日照时数、年平均风速、年平均相对湿度距平呈显著负相关。与中国其他稻作地区相比，海南稻飞虱发生面积率与温度的相关性较弱，与降水的相关性更强。

英文摘要：

Based on the observation data of 18 meteorological stations, as well as the diseases and rice planthopper data and planted rice areas data in Hainan in 1961--2010, by the method of correlation analysis and the multiple regression, this paper analyzed the effects of meteorological factors changes on occurrence of rice planthopper. The results showed that the rice planthopper occurrence area had an average increase of 104 hm2 every l0 years in Hainan in recent 50 years. There were significant positive correlations between the rate anomaly of rice planthopper occurrence area and that of mean annual air temperature, high temperature days, precipitation, precipitation intensity and rainstorm days. The rate anomaly of rice planthopper occurrence area had significant negative correlations with that of annual sunshine hours, average speed of wind and relative humidity. Compared with other rice cropping regions in China, the temperature presented a weak correlation, while the precipitation presented a strong correlation with the ratio of rice planthopper occurrence area in Hainan. The risk zoning result in the research is basically consistent with the actual production in tropical regions.