中文摘要：

选择主要天然橡胶生产基地之一的海南岛作为研究区，通过对橡胶园风害成因的分析研究，在橡胶园风害形成环境背景和灾害数据库的基础上，利用统计方法确定评估模型中的各类参数。运用可拓理论建立海南岛橡胶风害评估可拓模型，利用GIS技术设计开发了评估系统，并以1117号强台风“纳沙”为例开展了海南岛橡胶园风害评估。评估结果：强台风“纳沙”对海南岛的橡胶灾害影响综合等级为中度灾害，橡胶园的灾害损失以2—3级灾害为主，与实地调查的灾情基本一致。

英文摘要：

One of the main base of natural rubber production, Hainan island, is selected as a case study area to analyze and study the cause of rubber wind disasters. Based on the environment background and the typhoon disaster database, parameters for the disaster evaluation model were determined with statistics method. With the parameters, the extension model of rubber wind disaster evaluation for Hainan Island was built based on extension theory, and the evaluation system was developed with GIS technology. The evaluation model and system was then used to evaluate the wind disaster of rubber plantation of Hainan Island for No. 1117 severe typhoon ＂NESAT＂. Results show that the damage degree of the strong typhoon ＂ NESAT＂ to rubber plantation in Hainan Island is medium, and the disaster loss of the rubber plantation mainly ranges between Grade 2 to Grade 3, which generally agrees with the actual situation.