中文摘要：

基于我国南方集体林区杉木、马尾松成本收益的基础数据,运用生长方程及碳贮量生物量转变和扩展因子法分别对杉木、马尾松的碳贮量进行估算,通过构建修正后的Hartman模型,对比了考虑和不考虑碳汇收益的林地期望值,并模拟分析了贴现率、投入品价格和产出品价格变动对考虑碳汇收益的林地期望值的敏感性。研究结果表明：（1）杉木轮伐期约为马尾松的一半,但单一轮伐期内净收益却高于马尾松;（2）两树种林地期望值均呈现倒＂U＂形,两者差距先增大后减小;（3）贴现率与林地期望值呈负相关,同一价格因子对不同树种的敏感性存在差异。

英文摘要：

Based on the costs and benefits data of Chinese fir and Masson pine, this study used the growth equation and carbon storage in biomass transformation and expansion factor method to estimate carbon storage of Chinese fir and Mas- son pine respectively in southern collective forests region of China. Then, we compared the land expectation value with and without carbon benefits and analyzed the sensitivity of discount rate, input and output prices with developing Hart- man model. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） The rotation of Chinese fir was a half of the rotation of Masson pine, but Chi- nese fir had higher net profit than Masson pine in a single rotation. （2） The land expectation value of both species re- presented an inverse ＂U＂ shape, but the difference between Chinese fir and Masson pine increased firstly and then de- creased. （ 3 ） The discount rate was negatively related to land expected value, there appeared a difference of sensitivity of two species at the same price factors.