中文摘要：

鄱阳湖区的獐种群是一个孤立的种群,近年来其数量急剧减少。本研究应用种群生存力分析的原理和方法,利用漩涡模型预测了鄱阳湖区獐种群在未来100 a内的种群变动趋势,并分析了不同场景下獐种群的变化趋势。结果表明：鄱阳湖区獐种群在未来100 a灭绝的概率是0.37。如果鄱阳湖区獐的栖息地进一步被破坏,獐种群的灭绝概率将大幅度增加;高概率的幼仔死亡率会使獐种群在未来100 a出现灭绝的概率为100%;灾害对种群的影响也很大,在洪灾和狩猎的双重作用下,洪灾发生频率增加将使獐种群灭绝概率增大。通过本次对鄱阳湖区獐的种群生存力分析,发现幼仔的死亡率和栖息地的破碎化是鄱阳湖区獐种群的重要制约因素,建议在獐栖息地之间设立生态走廊,加大对偷猎的打击力度,将有利于该地区獐种群的长期发展。

英文摘要：

Chinese water deer （Hydropotes inermis） of Poyang Lake is a relatively isolated population with decreasing size in recent years. We collected the population parameters of the water deer population and the potential determinant factors from documented literatures, and then the population viability analysis was conducted. The population dynamics in 100 years was predicted by VORTEX 9.99 model. The results indicated that the extinction probability of this population would be 0.37 in the next 100 years, Additionally, the extinction probability would increase substantially if the habitat was to be further destroyed, and the high mortality of offspring would result in the extinction probability up to 100% in the following 100 years. The population was sensitive to disasters, and the extinction probability would be higher with increasing flooding frequency. Therefore, for the deer population recovery in Poyang Lake, we suggested that it was necessary to establish eco- logical corridor between suitable habitats, and stop poaching.