中文摘要：

该研究分析了1985—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区东方白鹳（Ciconia boyciana）越冬种群数量的年际变化趋势，探究了越冬地气候条件对其种群数量变化的影响。结果表明，1985—2011年，保护区东方白鹳种群数量为（1 340±178）只，呈显著线性增长趋势，但年际波动较大。种群数量与越冬当年11月份的平均最低气温显著正相关（r=0.554，P=0.003，n=27），越冬初期较低的温度可能影响东方白鹳选择鄱阳湖作为长期越冬地的决策，而增加对长江中、下游其他湿地的利用。同时，越冬地气候条件对种群数量的影响存在显著的时滞效应。越冬初期以及越冬后期的气温变量与2~9年后的种群数量显著正相关。尤其是越冬初期10月份的气温变量与2~5年后的种群数量变化极显著相关，越冬后期2月和3月的气温变量分别与8年后和3年后的种数数量极显著正相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明，2年前的10月平均最高温度、2年前的3月平均最高气温、4年前的10月平均最高温度、4年前的3月平均气温是东方白鹳种群数量变化的显著预测变量，共同解释了种群数量年际变化的79.2% （R2=0.792，F=20.901，df=26，P=0.000）。越冬初期和末期可能是个体迁飞后补充能量和迁飞前积累能量的关键阶段，适宜的气温有利于成体的能量积累和幼体的存活，且东方白鹳性成熟年龄为2~6年，因此，越冬地气候条件对其种群增长的影响将会在2年后体现。

英文摘要：

This study analyzed the population dynamics of the Oriental white stork （Ciconia boyciana） wintering in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve （PLNNR） from 1985 to 2011, to see if there was any relationship with climate change. Testing of several climate variables-monthly average temperature, monthly average maximum and minimum temperature, as well as monthly precipitation-indicated that the population size of the Oriental white stork in the PLNNR was 1,340±178 ind., with significant linear increase and drastic annual fluctuation. Every single year, the population size only significantly correlated with the average minimum temperature of Nov. In theory, the low temperature of Nov. could drive individuals to choose other wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, instead of the Poyang Lake as wintering habitats. Meanwhile, temperatures in wintering areas also showed a carry-over effect on subsequent population size. Temperatures in primary stage and later stage of wintering period were significantly correlated with population size 2-9 years later, while the temperature of Oct. was highly significantly correlated with population size 2-5 years after. Temperatures of Feb. and Mar. in the later stage of wintering period were highly significantly correlated with population size of 8 and 3 years after, respectively. Moreover, the stepwise linear regression result showed that the average maximum temperature of Oct. and average maximum temperature of Mar. 2 years ago, as well as the average maximum temperature of Oct. and the average temperature of Mar. 4 years ago were significant predictor factors of the population size fluctuation of the Oriental white stork, which totally accounted for 79.2% of the population size change.