中文摘要：

根据塔里木河干流1957年-2005年的年径流量监测数据,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验技术和R/S法,对干流年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析,并在此基础上采用滑动t检验法和Mann-Kendall法对其突变点进行检验。结果显示：①近50年来,塔里木河干流的年径流量呈现显著递减的趋势,愈往下游线性下降趋势愈显著,随着时间推移,未来有继续下降的趋势,且下降的趋势会更加显著;塔里木河干流径流年内分配受人类活动影响强烈,主要集中在夏季（6月-8月）,占全年径流量的50%以上;②突变点分析表明,阿拉尔、新渠满、英巴扎和恰拉水文站年径流量发生突变的年份分别为1972年、1972年、1973年和1972年,阿拉尔、新渠满和英巴扎3个水文站突变年份遵从自上而下的推移规律。

英文摘要：

The Tarim River is the longest continental river in China.In the past 50 years,global climate change and increasingly extensive human activities have greatly altered the water cycle,inducing a series of environmental problems in the Tarim River basin.The paper aims at examining the runoff time series in the mainstream,forecasting the future trends and offering some meaningful and constructive suggestions for rational management and allocation of water resources in the Tarim River basin.The trend of the runoff time series during 1957-2005 were analyzed using the nonparametric test and R/S methods.The sharp points of runoff were detected by the Mann-Kendall test and sliding t-test based on streamflows observed at four hydrological stations,i.e.,Alar,Xinqiman,Yingbaza and Qiala in the mainstream of the Tarim River.Results suggested that the annual runoff showed a significantly decreasing trend,more prominent at the lower reaches than that at the upper reaches over the past 50 years.The decreasing trend of runoff would be more significant in the future.The inter-decadal average runoff increased to varying degrees compared to the former decade at the four hydrological stations except Yingbaza,with increasing river volume in headstream since the 21st century.The mainstream of the Tarim River,under the influence of large-scale irrigated areas of the three source tributaries,lost the intra-annual distribution characteristics of natural runoff.The intra-annual distribution of runoff was influenced greatly by anthropogenic activities,and mainly concentrated in summer （June to August）,accounting for above 50% of the annual runoff.The sharp points of runoff were found to be in 1972,1972,1973 and 1972 in Alar,Xinqiman,Yingbaza and Qiala hydrological station,respectively,following the basic process from upper to lower reaches along the mainstream except the Qiala station.The characteristics of annual runoff in the mainstream of the Tarim River were predominantly affected by the uncertainty of river volume in the headstream