在建立内陆河流域城镇化与水资源环境系统耦合评价指标体系的基础上,以石羊河流域为例,运用灰色关联分析法定量分析流域城镇化与水资源环境系统交互耦合的主要因素,并揭示了耦合度的时空变化规律。结果表明:①流域城镇化与水资源环境系统内部要素问的交互耦合是复杂的。其中,城镇人口增长较快、社会化服务水平较低、产业结构不合理是胁迫水资源环境的主要因素,而总用水规模偏大、水资源管理落后以及水资源匮乏的本底条件是制约流域城镇化的主要原因。②流域城镇化与水资源环境系统耦合度的时序变动表现出明显的阶段性和波动性,其变化曲线呈现出两个连续U型。第一个U型表明2001--2007年期间水资源环境对城镇化的约束力总体上是先变小、后变大的趋势。第二个U型在验证2007年《甘肃省石羊河流域重点治理规划》出台后流域生态恶化趋势有所缓和的同时,警示继续加强流域水资源综合管理以实现耦合协调的必要性。③各县(区)耦合度表现出复杂多样的空间差异,这与各县(区)所处的经济社会发展水平、城镇化进程以及区域自然条件有关。
Based on the evaluation indicator system conceming the coupling between urbanization and water resource & environment system and GRA (Grey Relationship Analysis) method, taking Shiyang River Basin as case study, this paper reveals the main factors influencing the coupling between urbanization and water resource & environment and the temporal-spatial distribution of the coupling degrees. The results show: (1) Rapid urbanization, low social service level and irrational industrial structure are the main momentums of urbanization influencing water resource & environment, while the large water use, low water management level and water shortage are the main facors of water resource & environment affecting urbanization, which verify the interactive and complicated coupling between two systems. (2) In time series the change of coupling degrees shows its phases and undulatory characteristics and its variation curve is smilar to two continuous "U" shape.The first "U" shape shows that the restriction of water resource & environment on urbanization was softer before and harder later from 2001 to 2007. The second "U" shape shows the ecological deterioration had eased since 2007 when the Key Control Plan of Shiyang River Basin in Gansu Province was published, meanwhile the necessity of comprehensive management over Shiyang River Basin to ensure harmonious coupling is also warned. (3) In space the coupling degrees show its characteristic of spatial complexity, which are closely related with the economic and social development level, urbanization process and regional natural condition of each district and county.