中文摘要：

目的探讨应用ARIMA时间序列模型预测我国孕产妇死亡率的可行性,为继续降低孕产妇死亡率提供理论依据。方法收集全国1990年至2009年孕产妇死亡率数据,建立数据库。采用差分方法对序列资料进行平稳化,进行定阶,建立2010年全国孕产妇死亡率数据的序列分析预测模型,并对预测结果进行分析和评价。结果 ARIMA模型拟合结果较理想,残差序列的自相关函数图显示残差均为白噪声序列,模型的预测结果表明到2010年我国孕产妇死亡率全国、城市和农村分别为30.39‰,24.73‰及28.80‰,说明整体水平不断下降,将达到一个较低的水平。结论用ARIMA模型对孕产妇死亡率数据拟合较为满意,预测效果良好,可为进一步制定预防策略措施提供依据。

英文摘要：

Objective To explore the feasibility for the application of time series ARIMA model to predict the maternal mortality ratio（MMR） in China so as to provide the theoretical basis for continuing to reduce the MMR.Methods ARIMA model was established based on the MMR of China from 1990 to 2009.Using difference method to smooth the sequence,we determined the order and established the 2010 national MMR forecast model to evaluate the predicting results.Results ARIMA model fitted well.The residual autocorrelation function graph showed the residuals were white noise sequences.The prediction results showed the MMR in national urban and rural areas would be 30.39 ‰,24.73 ‰ and 28.80 ‰ in 2010,which showed MMR would decline and reach a lower level.Conclusion The fitting result in ARIMA model of the incidence of the MMR is satisfactory,the forecasting achieve good effects,which also provides scientific basis for the prevention and control of MMR.