中文摘要：

[目的]分析我国乙脑流行趋势,探讨GM（1,1）统计模型在疾病发病预测中的应用,为预防和控制乙脑疫情提供准确和科学的依据。[方法]利用我国1990~2009年乙脑发病率资料,运用GM（1,1）模型对其进行拟合和预测。[结果]1990~2009年全国乙脑发病率实际值和预测值吻合程度较好,拟合精度为Ⅰ级。预测2010~2012年乙脑发病率分别为0.25/10万、0.23/10万、0.20/10万。[结论]运用GM（1,1）模型对乙脑发病进行预测是可行的,该模型的拟合和预测效果较好

英文摘要：

[Objective] To analyze the trend of epidemic encephalitis B in China and explore the applications of GM（1,1） model in prediction of diseases,so as to provide precise scientific basis for the prevention and control of epidemic encephalitis B.[Methods]GM（1,1） model was established based on the incidence data of epidemic encephalitis B from 1990 to 2009 to evaluate the model and predict the incidence rate.[Results]The prognosticating incidence rate of epidemic encephalitis B from 1990 to 2009 fit the actual and the precision of GM（1,1） wasⅠgrade.The prediction results showed that incidence rate of epidemic encephalitis B would be 0.25/105,0.23/105,and 0.20/105 from 2010 to 2012.[Conclusion]The GM（1,1） model is feasible to analyze the trends of incidence of epidemic encephalitis B,and prediction of the model is excellent.