中文摘要：

目的分析我国2004-2009年肾综合征出血热的疫情特点,探讨时间序列资料乘积季节性模型在肾综合征出血热疫情分析预测中的应用。方法收集全国范围2004-2009年的肾综合征逐月疫情资料,应用时间序列资料乘积季节性模型进行拟合分析。结果我国肾综合征出血热发病近年有所下降,但仍是危害我国人民生命健康的主要传染病,模型预测2010年全年的发病人数达6025人。结论对于既有季节性、又有周期性的疫情资料,时间序列资料乘积季节性模型具有较好的拟合预测能力。

英文摘要：

The objective of the present study was to find out the epidemic characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China（2004-2009）,and to study the ARIMA model applied in this disease.The notifiable disease data from 2004 to 2009 by Ministry of Health were collected and analyzed.The ARIMA（p,d,q）（P,D,Q）12 model was applied to analyze,fit and predict the epidemic data.Results showed that the total reported cases from 2004 to 2009 added up to 95 249.The annual number of reported cases decreased slowly and the ARIMA model predicts that the total cases would be 6 025 in 2010.The HFRS is still one of the most serious infectious diseases in China and the multiple seasonal ARIMA（p,d,q）（P,D,Q）12 model is suitable to analyze the epidemic data,which has seasonal and periodic characteristics.