针对现实中防范"融资铜"风险的需要,本文归纳提炼出三种不同的"融资铜"模式,并就其操作过程中所面临的利率风险、人民币价格波动风险和标的物价格波动风险及其联动性进行深入剖析;采用GARCH-Copula模型,利用上述风险的收益数据及风险因子数据(2011年5月至2014年4月)对单一风险及综合风险进行识别与模拟,对不同模式中综合风险分布进行对比分析,根据在险价值做出警示。结果表明:"融资铜"是一种套利行为,其综合风险收益具有右偏特性,并明显呈现出尖峰厚尾的风险分布特征,相同置信水平下在险价值显著高于单一风险在险价值;其存在极值损失,发生极值损失对企业自身及金融系统会造成严重影响,因此相关监管机构必须对"融资铜"加以重视并实施控制,以引导资金回归实体经济之中。
To guard against the risks of copper "financing" in real need, three different copper "financing" patterns were put forward. And the interest rate risk, the volatility risk of RMB and price of subject and their correlation in the process of copper "financing" operation were analyzed. Based on the profit and the risk factor data from May 2011 to April 2014, the single risk and comprehensive risk were identified and simulated according to GARCH-Copulas model. Then the distributions of comprehensive risk in different patterns were compared in order to make warnings based on Value at Risk. The results show that the cop- per "financing" is a kind of arbitrage, and its comprehensive risk income has the right skewness and the characteristic of rush fat-tailed distribution, and under the same confidence level, the Value at Risk of comprehensive risk is significantly higher than that of single risk. Copper "financing " exists extreme loss, and in case of extreme loss, the enterprise itself and the financial system will face to adverse effects. In or- der to guide the capital back to the real economy, relevant regulators must pay close attention and imple- ment control to copper "financing".