基于政府、银行与国有企业三者关系角度对商业银行不良贷款内生机制和周期性规律进行的系统研究,发现政府对国有企业和商业银行的控制是不良贷款内生性的根源;结合财政分权体制下中央与地方政府的政绩考核导向,进一步揭示了不良贷款周期性爆发的循环轨迹。因此,要坚定地推动国有企业和银行业的改革进程,尤其是强化国有企业市场化改革力度,同时逐步探索和完善地方政府绩效考核与评估方式,这些将是化解不良贷款内生性和周期性问题的治本之策。
From the perspective of the relationship between g overnment, banks and state-owned enterprises, this paper systematically studies the endogenous mechanism and periodic law of commercial bank NPLs. The results show that the government control on state-owned enter prises and commercial banks is the root cause of endogenous NPLs. Combined with the orientation of the central and local government performance evaluation under the fiscal decentralization system, this paper further reveals the circulation track of periodic outbreaks of NPLs. Based on that, it points out that the fundamental solution to solving the endogenousnsess and periodicity of NPLs should be pushing forward the process of reform of state-owned enterprises and banks, especially strengthening the market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises, and gradually exploring and improving the performance appraisal and assessment methods for the local governments.