用点相关和SVD方法分析发现,长江中下游地区梅雨期降水的异常与前期(5月)和同期(6.7月)80~140°E,0~50°N区域附近的环流场的异常有关。当梅雨出现正(负)异常时,SVD分解的风场出现有利于(不利于)降水的主要分布模态。在用P-σ九层区域气候模式模拟初边条件的异常对梅雨降水的影响时,证实环流场异常对梅雨降水的影响比较显著。RegCM3模拟结果表明,1998年和1988年初边条件的异常对降水有明显的影响,长江流域的降水对此异常最为敏感。
Using dot correlation and SVD analysis, the relation of Mei-yu rainfall in the mid-lower reaches of the Changjiang River and the atmospheric circulation abnormality in the region of 80°~140°E, 0°-50°N in the early period (May) and current period (June and July) of Mei-yu is examined. When Mei-yu rainfall abnormally increases (decreases), wind field decomposed by SVD appears a leading distributing mode, which is (not) in favor of precipitation. Through simulating the effect of initial field's abnormality on Mei-yu rainfall by a P-6 nine-layer regional climate model, it is tested that air circulation has a distinct influence on Mei-yu rainfall. The simulative results of RegCM3 confirm that the initial and boundary fields of 1998 and 1988 have a notable effect on precipitation. Moreover, the precipitation in the region of Changjiang River is greatly affected.