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青藏高原地表热力异常与我国江淮地区夏季降水的关系

ISSN号：1006-9895
期刊名称：《大气科学》
时间：0
分类：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
作者机构：[1]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093
相关基金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2004CB418300,国家自然科学基金资助项目40233037

关键词：青藏高原, 地表温度, 空间热力差异, 江淮地区夏季降水, Tibetan Plateau, ground surface temperature, spatial thermal contrast, the summer rainfall in the Jianghuai area

中文摘要：

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析月平均资料和中国160站降水资料，分析了1951-2000年间5月青藏高原主体、高原东部和高原西部（90°E分界）地表温度的变化特征及其与江淮地区夏季降水的关系。结果发现：在研究高原热力异常对我国江淮地区夏季降水的影响时，要考虑到高原热力状况的空间差异对其的影响。相关分析发现，与高原主体和高原西部相比，高原东部地表温度变化对7月江淮地区的降水有更好的指示性。高原东部和其以北区域的大尺度热力差异比高原本身的热力异常对江淮地区夏季降水有更好的指示意义，可以作为我国江淮地区夏季降水的一个预报因子。

英文摘要：

The relation between the surface thermal anomalies （STA） in the Tibetan Plateau （TP） and the summer rainfall in the Jianghuai area has been studied by many researchers. However, the previous studies were more focused on the STA in the whole TP （28°N - 38°N, 78°E - 98°E）. Less attention was paid to the connection between the STA in different regions of the TP and the rainfall in the Jianghuai area in summer. This paper gives preliminary results of the relationship between the STA in the western TP and the eastern TP and the rainfall in the Jianghuai area in summer. The NCEP/NCAR monthly mean re-analysis data and the rainfall data at 160 stations of China in May during 1951 - 2000 are used, The results show that the spatial thermal contrast in the TP affects the summer rainfall in the Jianghuai area, and the STA in the eastern TP have the best indication for precipitation forecasting in July in the Jianghuai area. In addition, the anomalies in the TP are opposite-time-phase to that in the northeastern region （38°N - 46°N, 95°E - 110°E） of the TP in May. Therefore, an index is defined to indicate the intensity of the large scale south-north surface thermal contrast between the whole, eastern and western TP and the region （38°N - 46°N, 95°E - 110°E）. Through correlation and composite analysis, it is found that the surface thermal contrast index in the eastern TP has better indication for forecasting the rainfall in the Jianghuai area in summer than other indexes. As the thermal contrast index increases （decreases） in May, the rainfall tends to increase （decrease） in the Jianghuai area in summer. So the surface theramal contrast index could he use to predict the rainfall anomalies in the Jianghuai area in summer.

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