中文摘要：

本文以非寿险业务未决赔款准备金估计的确定性方法-PPCI法的思想为基础，分两阶段建立广义线性模型，分别对索赔次数和已发生每案赔付额进行估计，进而得到未决赔款准备金的估计值，并对模型的预测误差进行估计。文中通过一个实例对所述方法进行验证，并从预测误差的角度与其它模型进行比较。最后对该模型特点进行了总结。

英文摘要：

In this paper, two-stage Generalized Linear models are developed to estimate the outstanding claims reserve （OCR） in Non-life insurance. The models are based on the PPCI methods, estimating the claim number and payments per claim incurred respectively to obtain the estimate of OCR and prediction error. An example on Swiss Motor Insurance data is given to illustrate the technique and compare with other models in the aspect of prediction error. The characteristics of this model are summarized in the end.