中文摘要：

为了快速搜寻大型电力系统中关键的负荷节点,并定量分析其不确定性对系统暂态稳定的影响,系统地提出了一种分析大电网中负荷模型不确定性对电网动态影响的方法。此方法第1步通过寻找系统发生扰动时的电气中心,并对各节点的负荷重要度指标值由高至低的排序来寻找对动态仿真结果影响较大的负荷节点,对重要负荷进行初步的筛选。第2步应用概率分配法进一步对重要负荷的不确定性进行定量分析,精确分析负荷模型的不确定性对系统动态特性的影响。对海南电网的仿真分析验证了该方法在大电网动态仿真中的实用性和有效性,可为运行人员快捷地寻找出在故障中显著影响发电机功角的重要负荷节点,并对响应进行定量的不确定性分析。

英文摘要：

In order to fast locate the critical loads in a large-scale power system,and to analyze the impact of its uncertainty on the transient stability quantitatively,this paper systematically proposes a new method of the load model uncertainty＇s impact on the dynamic simulation of large-scale power grids.The first step of this method is to find the electrical centre during the disturbance,and rank the amplitude of load critical criterion from high to low.Based on this,which buses would be the most influential on the dynamic performance of the system can be determined,and the most critical loads can be preliminarily selected as well.The second step is to study the impact on system dynamic simulation from uncertainties of selected loads by combining with probabilistic collocation method（PCM）.Test on Hainan Power Grid verifies its practicability and validity in dynamic simulation.The proposed method can rapidly detect the most important load on the dynamic performance of the out-of-step generators for the operators,and quantitatively analyze the uncertainty of the dynamic response.