中文摘要：

只有提高模型及其参数的有效性才能提高先验仿真结果的可信度。因此提高仿真可信度的第1步工作就是要建立模型有效性评估体系，使研究人员能详细掌握所有模型及其参数的情况。分析了模型的建模理论、参数的来源及后验仿真对模型有效性的影响，提出了基于这3方面因素的模型有效性评估方法，并分析了对模型有效性进行动态评估的重要性。最后给出了具体的指标动态修正流程，便于该评估体系用于生产实践。

英文摘要：

The only approach to improve the confidence level of a priori simulation results is to meliorate the validity of model and its parameters. The first step for the improvement of simulation validity is to build a system to evaluate the validity of model to make the researchers enable to master the conditions of all models and their parameters. The influences of modeling theory, source of parameters and a posteriori simulation on validity of models are researched and an evaluation method of model validity based on the three factors is proposed, and the significance of performing dynamic evaluation of model validity is analyzed. Finally, a dynamic correction process for concrete indices is given.