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中文摘要：
奶牛养殖业是乳业发展的根基,对乳业健康稳定发展具有关键性作用。近年来,乳制品质量安全事件的发生、乳制品进口数量的增加等因素加剧了原奶价格的频繁波动,奶牛养殖业市场风险形势严峻。本文以我国主产省原奶月度价格为数据来源,采用Easy Fit软件构建原奶月度价格概率分布模型,综合K-S检验、A-D检验和x2检验等检验结果,得出我国原奶价格相对随机波动序列最优概率分布模型为Burr分布,从而测算我国原奶月度价格Va R值,根据Va R值可知,我国奶牛养殖业面临较高的市场价格风险,最后提出奶牛养殖业市场价格风险防控的对策建议。
英文摘要：
Cow farming, the foundation for the development of dairy industry,plays a key role in making dairy industry run healthily and stably. As dairy especially infant milk power scandals and dairy import both increase in recent years,price of raw milk fluctuate frequently more which take severe situation to the dairy industry. In this paper, monthly price of raw milk in the main producing provinces is used as data source, and probability distribution model of raw milk price is built through Easy Fit software. According to the test results of K-S, A-D and, a conclusion that the optimal probability distribution model of relatively random fluctuations sequence for raw milk price is Burr distribution is drawn. Value at risk is assessed through Va R method, which shows that dairy industry is facing higher market price risk. Then suggestions to prevent and control market price risk are presented.
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