中文摘要：

根据带控制变量的非线性自回归滑动平均（NARMAX）模型理论，建立了锚泊线的系统模型.该模型在进行系统识别时，将锚链上端点的运动时历作为系统的输入，锚泊线张力时历作为系统的输出，识别后得到的系统表达式可以用来预报锚泊线张力的时历.将模型预报结果与原时历进行比较，结果表明，NARMAX模型预报效果良好.

英文摘要：

NARMAX model is a non-linear system model. A system model of a mooring line was constructed according to the NARMAX model theory. To system identification, the motion trace of the upper end of the mooring line is treated as the input of a dynamic system, and the time trace of the mooring line tension as the output of the system. The system expression obtained by system identification can be used to predict future tension trace of the mooring line. The predicted results by the NARMAX model were compared with the original data. It can be seen that this model has a good performance in predicting tension trace of a mooring line.