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中文摘要：
赤潮藻类的细胞密度超过一定的阈值就能形成危害巨大的赤潮。基于渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的连续监测数据，运用极值理论研究了藻类细胞密度的超阈值分布特性．研究结果表明，赤潮藻类细胞密度的概率分布有比正态分布更重的尾部，服从Pareto型的超阈值分布函数。通过实际监测数据，建立了渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的Pareto型超阈值分布函数，并通过该函数计算了藻类细胞密度分别超过给定阈值的风险概率。
英文摘要：
When the concentration of algae exceeds a threshold, there will be harmful algal blooms. Based on the data of concentration of harmful algae in Bohai Bay, using extreme value theory, the peak-over-threshold distribution of the algae concentration was analyzed. It demonstrates that the distribution of algae concentration is generalized Pareto distribution, which has a heavier tail than normal distribution. Based on the real field data, a generalized Pareto distribution function of the algae concentration was obtained. And the peak-over-threshold risk probabilities of different algae concentrations were calculated.
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