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突变理论在长江流域洪灾综合风险社会评价中的应用
  • 期刊名称:武汉大学学报(工学版),2007,40(4):26-30.
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]
  • 作者机构:[1]华北电力大学水利水电工程系,北京102206, [2]国务院南水北调工程建设委员会办公室,北京100053
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金项目(编号:50579019);武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验事开放研究基金项目(编号:whu2005B018).
  • 相关项目:洪灾异型风险的综合分析与评价理论及应用研究
中文摘要:

从社会学的角度,分析了洪灾综合风险社会评估的基本组成.结合洪灾风险的自然属性和社会属性在短时间内发生转变的特性,应用突变评价理论,给出了考虑风险可接受水平的洪灾综合风险社会评估的突变评价方法,建立了长江流域的评价指标体系,并用实例验证了该模型方法的合理性与可行性.

英文摘要:

As viewed from society, combining with the transient attribute of flood disaster risk both in nature and society and considering the level of acceptable risk (or risk threshold), this paper analyses the basic composition of social assessment of integrated flood risks, which consists of risk of casualties of people, economic risk, environmental risk, and potential risks, from the perspective of sociology, and presents an assessing method of integrated flood risks based on catastrophe theory. Based on expatiating on primary models of catastrophe theory, the assessment index system for the Yangtze River is established. A case study is conducted to prove its rationality and practicality.

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