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中文摘要：
由来水不确定性带来的申报电量风险和对边际电价预测不准确引起的申报电价风险，是水电厂参与电力市场竞价的主要风险。水电厂水库的水文预报模型和系统不仅包含了丰富的水库来水规律特性信息，也包含了预报系统的大量特征信息。文中建立的基于径流预报特性的蒙特卡罗风险分析模型，在统计实验方法中充分吸纳了水文预报系统的相关信息，为定量分析计算水电厂申报电量的风险提供了一种有效、可行的途径和方法。
英文摘要：
The main risk for hydropower plants at the in electricity market is the bidding energy risk induced by the uncertainty of inflow and marginal electricity price forecast. The hydrological forecasting model of a reservoir and its system contain abundant characteristic information of inflow law of the reservoir and the forecasting system. A Monte-Carlo risk analysis model is built based on runoff forecasting. It adequately absorbs interrelated information of hydrological prediction system, and provides an efficient and feasible way for quantitative analysis and calculation involved in the risk involved in bidding energy.
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