中文摘要：

随着我国空中交通流量的日益增加,空中交通冲突现象日益严重,为了量化空中交通的安全性,对航空器之间的飞行冲突风险进行了研究。以冲突过程为研究对象,根据航迹误差服从高斯分布,计算三维冲突概率,结合冲突严重程度,计算冲突风险。以实际发生冲突的两架航空器为例,采用航迹数据进行仿真,该曲线可为管制员提供更好的决策和支持,并验证上述理论的正确性。

英文摘要：

This paper is aimed at introducing a method for calculating the conflict risks in the air traffic control,which is oriented for assessing the conflict risks in the to-and-fro air traffic directions.While using the method,what we mean by the air traffic conflict risk,the problem may include two sections,that is,the conflict probability and the conflict severity,which can be stated and analyzed in the following points.First of all,the conflict probability should be based on the track deviation,which involves the so-called Gaussian distribution.In terms of Gaussian distribution,we mean the conflict probability between the two airplanes which are flying in the same air-route in the opposite directions over the next period.Then,it is necessary to calculate the air conflict severity,which involves the conflict duration and distance variation between the two aircraft in flight.And,finally,the air conflict risk has to be worked out in accordance with the conflict probability and conflict severity.In this paper,we have simulated all the flight scenarios of the parallel and intersecting routes so as to gain and arrive at the likely to be conflicting curves,which helps to demonstrate the curves of the likely real-time conflicts and find the potential trends to develop the conflict risks.Furthermore,in order to ensure the applicability of the method,we have taken the actual conflict probability simulated mode for example.And,in final analysis,we have quoted some of the actual flight conflict data to calculate how to get rid of the actual conflicts of the two aircraft.The curve we have prepared can meet the needs to get rid of the likely conflict scenes and verify the usability of the method,which helps to provide better decision-making and effective support for the air-traffic managers and controllers.