鲜活农产品在中国农产品出口中占重要地位,其中水果是具有出口创汇比较优势的产品。本文采用2000-2013年HS-6位水果贸易数据,分析了中国水果出口总体特征以及对俄罗斯、日本和美国的出口特征,应用三元边际分析方法,对中国水果在三个市场的出口增长三元边际进行了测算,并进一步对水果出口定价能力进行估测。研究表明:集约边际对水果出口增长的拉动作用大于扩展边际,对俄罗斯和美国的出口沿着价格边际增长,对日本的出口沿着数量边际增长;中国水果对这三个市场的出口定价能力较弱,缺失定价主动权,原因是中国水果在每个市场上所占份额小以及出口企业互相压价。为进一步实现水果出口增长和提高出口定价能力,建议增加水果出口种类,实现水果出口沿着扩展边际增长;提高水果附加值,实现水果出口沿着集约边际增长;加强农产品质量安全监管,突破绿色贸易壁垒;提高企业进入国际市场的组织化程度,增强议价能力。
Fresh agricultural products, especially fruits, play an important role in China’s agricultural exports. Using HS 6-digit export data of fruits, this paper analyzed the characteristics of China’s fruit exports to Russia, Japan, the United States, and the world. Then applying the triple margin analysis method, this paper also examined the price and quantity margins of Chinese fruit export growth in each market and tested export pricing power by using the residual demand elasticity model. Results show that 1) China’s fruit export growth is mainly due to the promotion of the intensive margin. It grows along price margin on Russian and US markets and along quantity margin on Japanese market;and 2) Due to the small market share of China’s fruits in each market and vicious competition among export companies, China is lack of pricing power in fruit export market. To further promote China’s fruit exports and to improve pricing power, this paper provides the following suggestions:increasing export fruit varieties, enhancing the added value of export fruits, strengthening the supervision of quality and safety of agricultural products to break through the green trade barriers, improving the organizational level of the companies to enhance the bargaining power in the international market.