中文摘要：

从空间经济角度探究水果价格波动成因及其作用机理，对于稳定水果市场具有重要的现实意义。本文运用修正的Gini系数和Moran’s Ⅰ指数考察了2000-2014年中国水果以及苹果、香蕉生产的空间分布及其变化特征，进而利用X-12-ARIMA季节调整模型和协方差分析法分别检验了生产空间分布对苹果、香蕉价格波动的影响。结果表明：1）中国水果生产的地理集聚特征显著，水果产销分离和跨区流通的宏观格局基本显现，中国水果生产空间分布重心自东向西转移趋势明显。2）同一时期主产区苹果、香蕉价格的波动强度均强于主销区。水果价格波动的剧烈程度可能与地区经济发展水平有关。3）趋势变动和季节性变动是苹果、香蕉价格波动的主要来源，前者对主销区苹果、香蕉价格波动的贡献更大。不规则变动对主产区苹果、香蕉价格波动的贡献明显大于主销区。

英文摘要：

It is of great practical significance to study the causes and mechanism of fruit price fluctuations from the perspective of spatial economics. Taking apple and banana markets from 2000 to 2014 as examples, and applying the revised Gini coefficient and Moran’s Ⅰ index, this paper investigated the spatial distribution and variation characteristics of China’s fruit markets. This paper also empirically tested the influence of the spatial distribution on the price fluctuations of apple and banana markets by the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment model and covariance analysis. Results show that： 1） China’s fruit production displays an obvious geographic concentration feature： fruit production and consumption regions are separated with huge inter-reginal trade flows. At the same time, fruit production concentration has been shifting from the east to the west. 2） Apple and banana price fluctuations of main production areas are more intense than that of main consumption areas. The intensity of fluctuations of apple and banana prices may be related to regional economic development levels. And 3） general trend change and seasonal change are the main sources of apple and banana price fluctuations, with the former having more contribution to apple and banana price fluctuations of main consumption areas. The irregular changes on apple and banana price fluctuations of main production areas are larger than that of main consumption areas.