中文摘要：

在建立VAR模型的基础上,采用协整分析、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法对柑橘投入品价格和柑橘种植面积之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：劳动力价格和肥料价格对柑橘种植面积存在明显的抑制作用,而柑橘种植面积的扩大对肥料价格和劳动力价格上涨具有推动作用;此外,从长期来看,农药价格对柑橘种植面积影响最大,肥料次之,劳动力影响最弱。为有效激励果农生产的积极性,国家应建立和完善农药、肥料等重点农资产品的储备,设立农资价格变动补助基金,健全以市场经济为主要调节方式的农资价格调控机制,规范农资价格及经营秩序。

英文摘要：

Based on the VAR model, by using cointegration analysis, impulse response and variation decomposition, this article takes an empirical analysis of the correlation between orange input price and planting area. The results show that： labor force price and fertilizer price have a significant inhibition effect in orange planting area, but the enlargement of orange planting area has a driving effect in rising fertilizer price and labor force price; besides, from the long run, the pesticide price has a largest impact on orange planting area, the fertilizer price is the secondary, and the impact of labor force is the weakest. In order to motivate the activity of fruit farmer effectively, the nation should build and improve the storage of pesticide, fertilizer and key agricultural capital products, set agricultural capital price changing subsidy funds, improve the agricultural capital price control mechanism with the market economy as main control mode, and regulate the agricultural capital price and operation order.