现有金融发展与经济增长关系研究文献虽然丰富,但是观点针锋相对,证据混合。本文运用元分析技术,基于45篇英文文献中623个有关金融发展与经济增长关系的方程,经实证检验发现:一是在不区分银行和股票市场发展测量指标的情况下,整合证据支持金融发展促进经济增长的观点;与银行发展不同,股票市场发展影响经济增长不具统计显著性。进一步分析,相比于股票市场规模影响不显著,股票市场流动性能够促进经济增长。二是在经济增长中,银行发展大于股票市场发展的作用,尤其是股票市场相对规模和换手率的作用显著低于金融深化指标揭示的金融资产集聚活动。三是在银行发展促进经济增长关系上,金融资源配置活动的影响作用低于金融资产集聚活动;其中,货币储备银行相对于央行重要性(银行比率)和增加向私人企业贷款的作用显著低于金融资产集聚活动。此外,本文还发现:随着时间递延,金融发展-经济增长效应存在下降规律;在地区上,拉丁美洲、加勒比地区有相对高的金融发展-经济增长效应,中东与北非地区有显著较低的金融发展-经济增长效应;样本文献是否控制政治稳定性、贸易、投资、初始收入、人力资本等方面变量能显著影响金融发展-经济增长效应。本文结论能够为金融体制改革、股票市场发展以及银行治理和创新提供有益的政策启示。
There are different views and mixed evidence in existing literature about relationship between financial development and economic growth. Using meta-analysis technology based on 45 articles in English literature abroad 623 equations,this article found:First,integration of evidence support the theory that financial development promotes economic growth while not distinguishing measures between banks and the stock market development;Unlike bank development,the stock market development has no statistical significance effect on economic growth. Further analysis,compared to the stock market scale,the stock market liquidity can promote economic growth. Second,in the economic growth,the role of banks is greater than the stock market development;Especially the relative size of stock market and the turnover rate is significantly lower than the effect of financial deepening indicators which reveal the financial assets of agglomeration. Third,the influence of financial resource allocation activities below financial asset gathering activities in the bank's development promote economic growth;Among them,the role that the currency reserve bank importance relative to the central bank(bank rate)and the role of loans to private enterprises are significantly lower than that of financial assets gathered. In addition,this paper also found that over time deferred,the effect of financial development to economic growth slowed down;In the region,Latin America and the Caribbean have relatively high effect of financial development to economic growth,the Middle East and north Africa region have significantly lower financial development- economic growth effect;Whether sample control political stability,trade,investment,the initial income,human capital variables significantly affects the effect of financial development to economic growth. In this paper,the conclusion provides beneficial policy implications for the financial system reform,the development of stock market and bank governance and innovation.