中文摘要：

借鉴可靠性工程理论中系统可靠性的分析方法，将冷链物流系统运行故障这一抽象问题具体化处理，根据系统中各功能环节的运行特点及事件之间的因果关系，构建冷链物流系统的系统失效故障树；在此基础上生成贝叶斯网络，以综合评估冷链物流系统的运行可靠性，揭示系统故障产生的主要原因，为改进冷链物流系统的运行可靠性提供定量依据．将所提出方法用于某第三方冷链物流企业的运作管理中，取得了预期效果．

英文摘要：

By borrowing ideas from the reliability analysis in reliability engineering theory, the abstract problem of cold- chain logistics system fault is crystallized and its fault tree is constructed according to operation features of various functional parts and the causal relationship between events in cold-chain logistics system. By converting fault tree to Bayesian networks, it is convenient to draw a comprehensive evaluation for the system reliability of cold-chain logistics system and reveal the main cause of system failure, in order to provide quantitative foundation for improving system reliability. In a third party cold-chain logistics enterprise, expected results are obtained by applying the proposed method.